A 'nowcast' provides an up-to-date estimate of the parasite risk, based on current weather data. It shows what is happening right now (and is therefore not a 'forecast').
A nowcast helps farmers and veterinarians to make timely, evidence-based decisions on parasite control.
This interactive map shows the current monthly risk of pasture contamination by cattle O. ostertagi L3 larvae in Europe. Colours indicate Low, Medium and High risk (mean L3/kg dry grass).
Zoom & click your region to view the previous months' result!
The map updates each month using ERA5-Land weather and the GLOWORM-FL model.
*Please note: The values shown are a relative risk index derived from temperature and precipitation only; they are not absolute worm counts and do not include farm management, treatments and stocking density. Interpret alongside local veterinary advice.
Risk maps are produced with the validated GLOWORM-FL mechanistic model from the following studies:
Rose, H., Wang, T., van Dijk, J., Morgan, E.R. (2015). GLOWORM-FL: a simulation model of the effects of climate and climate change on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematode parasites of ruminants. Ecological Modelling 297: 232–245;
Wang, T., Vineer, H.R., Redman, E., Morosetti, A., Chen, R., McFarland, C., Colwell, D.D., Morgan, E.R., Gilleard, J.S. (2022). An improved model for the population dynamics of cattle gastrointestinal nematodes on pasture: Parameterisation and field validation for Ostertagia ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora in northern temperate zones. Veterinary Parasitology 310: 109777.